Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 1.970931 2.084717 2.204107 2.339149 2.488180 2.648235 2.833943
2025-09-14 1.780995 1.935427 2.104914 2.306230 2.540844 2.808185 3.139639
2025-09-21 1.653972 1.829184 2.027254 2.270469 2.564971 2.915363 3.372286
2025-09-28 1.553337 1.740624 1.957148 2.229952 2.570476 2.990167 3.561320
2025-10-05 1.508914 1.712420 1.952889 2.263696 2.663791 3.175329 3.904124
2025-10-12 1.472236 1.689559 1.951382 2.297692 2.756352 3.363500 4.268193
2025-10-19 1.437415 1.665886 1.945913 2.324085 2.838199 3.541360 4.635739
2025-10-26 1.390901 1.624570 1.914922 2.313682 2.867549 3.646137 4.904341
2025-11-02 1.348511 1.586062 1.884899 2.301639 2.892066 3.743735 5.170917
2025-11-09 1.303854 1.542460 1.845741 2.274185 2.891591 3.802419 5.379008
2025-11-16 1.262021 1.500698 1.806880 2.244497 2.884964 3.849667 5.571498
2025-11-23 1.235271 1.477468 1.791430 2.246192 2.923775 3.969629 5.906417
2025-11-30 1.213010 1.459810 1.783314 2.258656 2.980832 4.126076 6.337802
2025-12-07 1.176781 1.422226 1.746434 2.227587 2.968695 4.166951 6.553482
2025-12-14 1.141982 1.385372 1.709069 2.193779 2.949693 4.193770 6.743999
2025-12-21 1.107772 1.348241 1.669951 2.155452 2.920894 4.200653 6.893325
2025-12-28 1.098628 1.344875 1.677818 2.187373 3.006851 4.417470 7.536129
2026-01-04 1.090065 1.341863 1.685821 2.219517 3.094889 4.646832 8.260662
2026-01-11 1.079724 1.335938 1.689239 2.244459 3.172144 4.863963 9.011736
2026-01-18 1.059607 1.315677 1.671094 2.234629 3.188584 4.963950 9.485666
2026-01-25 1.040048 1.295642 1.652567 2.223247 3.201336 5.057443 9.965953
2026-02-01 1.017270 1.270454 1.625671 2.197292 3.186459 5.092554 10.287995
2026-02-08 0.994899 1.245320 1.598138 2.169213 3.166106 5.114266 10.576817